Friday, June 13, 2014

First Tropical Depression could also be the first land-falling hurricane of the Season!

6/13/2014 6Z GFS

For the past couple of days, I have been watching as the GFS has put an interesting feature developing South and East of the Yucatan Peninsula. Yesterday's morning's run had the tropical system slamming first into the Yucatan, then Florida, and then out to the middle of the Atlantic Sea. Then, the feature disappeared completely for a couple of runs. However, this morning, the feature re-appeared and the GFS has it tracking much closer to the Eastern coast, potentially affecting Florida, North Carolina, and here in Virginia! 
GFS surface Hour: 312


GFS surface Hour: 348

Discussion

Now, it is of note that this is the GFS fantasy-land and this is two weeks out. Also of note, none of the other models I have looked at have this system (Euro, CMC). But, what makes this at least a little exciting is that it has shown up in a couple of runs now of the GFS (most notably the 6/12 6Z run) with relatively the same track. Also, the GFS is forecasting it to be a tropical storm before 192 (the switchover to fantasy-land)




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