Potential Chase: 4/27/2012

Thinking at 5pm Thursday 

A shortwave at 500mb is progged to move through the Central Plains tomorrow, providing lift for a low to form at the surface and move into north-central KS. The warm front looks like it is going to move into northern KS and Central  MO by 0z and a dry-line extending through central KS into TX. 18Z NAM soundings near Ottowa, KS showed a beautiful, curved hodo-graph with near 300 0-1km Storm Relative Helicity. Winds at 500mb aren't too strong, so storms shouldn't move too fast. However, I'm worried about storms firing at all. Currently (5pm) there are storms firing in CO and OK that looks like it could grow upscale into an MCS and track across KS area tomorrow morning. Depending on how that will evolve tomorrow morning, the MCS could wash things out and make it hard for the atmosphere to recover. 

18Z NAM  from Twisterdata 

1515Z Mesoscale discussion and update

The system has evolved almost exactly as the 18Z NAM has predicted and the morning convection has not completely wiped out the CAPE, however, it seems to have cooled mid-levels enough to where it has wiped out the CIN. Satellite and radar shows storms already firing along the dryline in Central KS. The dryline is draped across the middle of Kansas and is lifting North. A large cloud deck covers most of Kansas, but shouldn't be a problem as storms have already formed, and Moisture and heat advection as well as daytime heating will let storms intensify this afternoon. RUC and WRF are showing CAPE above 1500 already and is forecast to incease later. 0-1 SR helicity is forecast to increase to well over 400 in Northern and Eastern Kansas. SPC has issued a MTD risk with 15% hatched tornado probabilities. Their mesoscale discussion mentions supercells along the warm front and near the triple point. 

Satalite at 1515Z showing storms firing along drline 

Last night's WRF model showing supercell storm mode in Eastern 

Kansas

Ruc Model of Temperatures at 7pm tonight